Murphy's Law

[watervole]

I was delighted to discover today that Murphy's Law was named for a real person, Edward A Murphy, an American aerospace engineer who worked on safety-critical systems.  Murphy regarded the law as crystallizing a key principle of defensive design, in which one should always assume worst-case scenarios.

I found Edward Murphy while looking up John Paul Stapp, who is probably responsible for the fact that two of my friends are still alive this morning.  John Paul Stapp Stapp's life was dedicated to aerospace safety in particular, and safety in general; he was one of the principal advocates of automotive safety belts.

Comments

[jon-a-five.livejournal.com]

I love the saftey belt story. Stapp did statistical analysis of how the USAF lost most of it's pilots (since they are very expensive to train and recruit). Turns out most of them that died before retirement died in car crashes!

[cdybedahl.livejournal.com]

A few years ago, Jenny and I walked away unhurt from a car crash that we definitely wouldn't have without seat belts. The person who was driving tried to do a 90-degree turn at about 130 km/h. It didn't work so well.

[sigisgrim.livejournal.com]

Luckily I've never been in a car crash where I needed the seat belt to save me, but I do know people who have. However, seat belts don't always save, very occassionally they do the opposite.

Almost 40 years ago my father was in a crash where another car smashed into his at speed from a side road. The car (a Morris Minor Traveller) was totalled and he was thrown out of the driver's door into the ditch on the opposite side of the road. The nursing staff at the hospital said that if he'd been wearing a seat belt he would have been cut in two. Consequently ever after he refused to wear a seat belt and where possible deliberately owned and drove older cars that didn't have them.

Thankfully, however, those types of crashes are significantly rare and things like side protection and air bags are now included so I suspect that the same situation would be unlikely to be so serious now.

[damerell.livejournal.com]

There's also (unfortunately but unsurprisingly) a risk compensation effect. The introduction of seatbelts in the UK produced little reduction in overall fatalities and an increase amongst peds and cyclists. It's difficult to see letting drivers externalise _yet more_ costs onto non-drivers as unequivocally good.

[watervole.livejournal.com]

I do have some sympathy with the school of thought that advocates putting a large spike in the centre of each steering wheel...

[damerell.livejournal.com]

If I were El Presidente Dictator For Life and for some reason wasn't just banning cars straight-up, I would certainly repeal the driver seatbelt law, along with all crash-resistance standards that don't legislate against outright negligence or improve matters for victims outside the car. In particular, to restrict visibility for the sake of better crash resistance is pernicious.

[(Anonymous)]

I'va also heard this logic applied to speed limits; "I'm driving safely as I'm under the 70mph speed limit. Gosh, it's raining awfully heavily today."

[jon-a-five.livejournal.com]

(this was me not being loged in again)

[damerell.livejournal.com]

I don't think anyone has demonstrated that's a real effect, though - in particular, it assumes that - absent speed limits - motorists wouldn't just charge about at >70mph in the rain anyway.

[vjezkova.livejournal.com]

I love Mürphy´s Law and the variations - mostly because this is one way how to get over negative things with laughter. I am impressed with aerospace inventions - I am sure most of them are parts of our lives.