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Stern Report chapter 3
I've copied this without comment as I feel it speaks for itself.
Climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food, health, and use of land and the environment. On current trends, average global temperatures could rise by 2 - 3°C within the next fifty years or so,1 leading to many severe impacts, often mediated by water, including more frequent droughts and floods (Table 3.1).
• Melting glaciers will increase flood risk during the wet season and strongly reduce dry-season water supplies to one-sixth of the world’s population, predominantly in the Indian sub-continent, parts of China, and the Andes in South America.
• Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, are likely to leave hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food - particularly if the carbon fertilisation effect is weaker than previously thought, as some recent studies suggest. At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for moderate temperature rises (2 – 3°C), but then decline with greater amounts of warming.
• Ocean acidification, a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels, will have major effects on marine ecosystems, with possible adverse consequences on fish stocks.
• Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people flooded each year with a warming of 3 or 4°C. There will be serious risks and increasing pressures for coastal protection in South East Asia (Bangladesh and Vietnam), small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and large coastal cities, such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Calcutta, Karachi, Buenos Aires, St Petersburg, New York, Miami and London.
• Climate change will increase worldwide deaths from malnutrition and heat stress. Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever could become more widespread if effective control measures are not in place. In higher latitudes, cold-related deaths will decrease.
• By the middle of the century, 200 million more people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods, and more intense droughts, according to one estimate.
• Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with one study estimating that around 15 – 40% of species face extinction with 2°C of warming. Strong drying over the Amazon, as predicted by some climate models, would result in dieback of the forest with the highest biodiversity on the planet.
The consequences of climate change will become disproportionately more damaging with increased warming. Higher temperatures will increase the chance of triggering abrupt and large-scale changes that lead to regional disruption, migration and conflict.
• Warming may induce sudden shifts in regional weather patterns like the monsoons or the El Niño. Such changes would have severe consequences for water availability and flooding in tropical regions and threaten the livelihoods of billions.
• Melting or collapse of ice sheets would raise sea levels and eventually threaten at least 4 million Km2 of land, which today is home to 5% of the world’s population.
1 All changes in global mean temperature are expressed relative to pre-industrial levels (1750 - 1850). A temperature rise of 1°C represents the range 0.5 – 1.5°C, a temperature rise of 2°C represents the range 1.5 – 2.5°C etc.
STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change 56
The complete report can be found here: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm
Climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food, health, and use of land and the environment. On current trends, average global temperatures could rise by 2 - 3°C within the next fifty years or so,1 leading to many severe impacts, often mediated by water, including more frequent droughts and floods (Table 3.1).
• Melting glaciers will increase flood risk during the wet season and strongly reduce dry-season water supplies to one-sixth of the world’s population, predominantly in the Indian sub-continent, parts of China, and the Andes in South America.
• Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, are likely to leave hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food - particularly if the carbon fertilisation effect is weaker than previously thought, as some recent studies suggest. At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for moderate temperature rises (2 – 3°C), but then decline with greater amounts of warming.
• Ocean acidification, a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels, will have major effects on marine ecosystems, with possible adverse consequences on fish stocks.
• Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people flooded each year with a warming of 3 or 4°C. There will be serious risks and increasing pressures for coastal protection in South East Asia (Bangladesh and Vietnam), small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and large coastal cities, such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Calcutta, Karachi, Buenos Aires, St Petersburg, New York, Miami and London.
• Climate change will increase worldwide deaths from malnutrition and heat stress. Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever could become more widespread if effective control measures are not in place. In higher latitudes, cold-related deaths will decrease.
• By the middle of the century, 200 million more people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods, and more intense droughts, according to one estimate.
• Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with one study estimating that around 15 – 40% of species face extinction with 2°C of warming. Strong drying over the Amazon, as predicted by some climate models, would result in dieback of the forest with the highest biodiversity on the planet.
The consequences of climate change will become disproportionately more damaging with increased warming. Higher temperatures will increase the chance of triggering abrupt and large-scale changes that lead to regional disruption, migration and conflict.
• Warming may induce sudden shifts in regional weather patterns like the monsoons or the El Niño. Such changes would have severe consequences for water availability and flooding in tropical regions and threaten the livelihoods of billions.
• Melting or collapse of ice sheets would raise sea levels and eventually threaten at least 4 million Km2 of land, which today is home to 5% of the world’s population.
1 All changes in global mean temperature are expressed relative to pre-industrial levels (1750 - 1850). A temperature rise of 1°C represents the range 0.5 – 1.5°C, a temperature rise of 2°C represents the range 1.5 – 2.5°C etc.
STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change 56
The complete report can be found here: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm
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It is the Achilles heel of democracies that people always vote for jam today, but I am still hopeful that enough people will vote to save the world for their children - indeed, given the time-scale, for their own old-age.
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And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
Fantastic post, Judith. I'm a staunch environmentalist (hey, I'm from the great nation of California, it's my birthright lol), so I read all of this with great interest. My husband and I are in the first stages of building an off-the-grid house which will be entirely energy independent. That's a big trend in California and the northwest, so there is hope.
This recent "wasteful" psychology is really an aberration of more recent times. Our own ancestors were remarkably resourceful people who lived and thrived on very little, so changing the trend should simply be a matter of getting back to our own roots. My Arkansas grandmother had a sign that read: "Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without". If we merely did that, we'd have a serious leg up on the planetary
path of destruction we're on.
I was glad to see our actual President Al Gore (who would now be in the middle part of his second term, had he been allowed to take office) working with the UK now. We can only hope he'll have to quit the job, however, in two years time to take office as US President. (I'm on the Make Al Gore Run for the Presidency bandwagon these days) lol
Re: And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
I love your grandmother!
I'm heading in that direction. Our TV set is getting pretty old, but I'll keep on using it as long as it works, no matter how much I like the idea of widescreen.
The house project sounds fascinating. Presumably it'll be really heavy on insulation and of a shape that reduces energy loss? Passive solar heating? (Our house gains a lot from being south-facing and I open and close curtains to trap heat at the right time of day) Firewood from your own lot? Wind turbine?
Re: And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
Re: And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
My current target is to get both the gas and electricity bills to below what they were for the same quarter last year.
Re: And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
Ok, I'll take down this year's figures as my starting point.
Re: And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
Right now, we're looking at an Earthship design (which is a whole integral "green system" that also collects rainwater for delivery to the house water supply). There are a couple of other "green building" designs we're considering, too. We'll be building in Washington State, so wind is going to play heavily in our energy strategy, along with passive solar. We'll probably have a backup wood pellet stove, but I'm concerned about the smog created in that area by wood stoves, so it'll be only one, backup element.
Re: And if sheer survival doesn't get them ...
It all sounds fascinating. I look forward to reading more about it in your journal.